
The Factors That Reduce Fertility and The Policies that Enhance it
The kick-off conference of the Family, Fertility and Human Development Initiative aims to convene leading scholars and analysts from around the world to discuss the causes and consequences of fertility decline using data analyses to identify differences in fertility by socioeconomic status, religion, and culture. As a collaborative effort, we hope to assess the causes of these trends, evaluate the literature’s explanations, and assess the effectiveness of pro-fertility policies and other cultural factors. The conference will include workshop sessions to prepare interdisciplinary research questions for further investigation in the new year, with the ultimate goal of a special journal issue publication.
Featured Attendees and Speakers
James J. Heckman, The University of Chicago (Principal Investigator of the Project)
Zoltán Oszkár Szántó, Corvinus University (Host of the Conference)
Matthias Doepke, Northwestern University
Tomáš Sobotka, Vienna Institute of Demography
Eliana La Ferrara, Harvard University
Hanming Fang, University of Pennsylvania
Matt Deventhal, University of Southern California
Ron Lee, University of California, Berkeley
Klaus Zimmerman, Free University Berlin
Alicia Adserà, Princeton University
David Weil, Brown University
Uta Schönberg, University of Hong Kong
Angela Greulich, ScincePo Paris
Anna Matysiak, University of Warsaw
Zsuzsanna Makay, Hungarian Demographic Research Institute
András Gábos, TÁRKI Social Research Institute in Budapest
Márton Medgyesi, Corvinus University
Karel Neels, University of Antwerp
Pieter Vanhuysse, University of Southern Denmark
Bram De Rock, Université libre de Bruxelles
Róbert Gál, Corvinus University
Zsolt Spéder, Hungarian Demographic Research Institute
Tamás Bartus, Corvinus University
Conference Videos
Welcoming Remarks
Zoltán O. Szántó
Overview
James Heckman Ronald Lee
The New Low Fertility Landscape
Tomas Sobotka
The Economics of Fertility
Matthias Doepke
Demographic Transitions Across Time and Space
Matt Delventhal
Economic Growth
Ronald Lee
Replacement Fertility is Neither Natural nor Optimal nor Likely
David Weil
Entertainment Media and Norms Change
Eliana La Ferrara
Wind of Change Cultural Determinants of Maternal Labour Supply
Uta Schonberg
Spouses with Benefits
Bram de Rock
Educational Expansion, Economic Cycles and Low Fertility
Karel Neels
Policy Responses to Low Fertility
Tomáš Sobotka and Anna Matysiak
Cash Benefit or Tax Incentives
Zsolt Speder
Family Ideals across Cultures
Alicia Adsera
Quantitatively Assessing Norms
Cristina Bicchieri
Desired Fertility Actual Fertility and the Effects of Chinas Universal Two Child Policy
Hanming Fang
Why are Family Benefits Tools of Fair Distributions
Robert Gal and Pieter Vanhuysse
Program
Venue: Corvinus University of Budapest, Building C, 1st floor, Library, Aquarium Conference Room
(Address: 1093 Budapest, Közraktár Str. 4-6.)
Day 1: 19 December 2024
9:10 – 9:30
Welcome
Zoltán O. Szántó
Overview of Issues
James J. Heckman and Ron Lee
9:30-10:20
The new low-fertility landscape: rapid shifts, ambiguous preferences, changing determinants, and uncertain future outlook
Tomáš Sobotka, Vienna Institute of Demography
10:20-11:10
The economics of fertility, a new era
Matthias Doepke, London School of Economics
11:10-11:40
Demographic transitions across time and space
Matt Delventhal, University of Southern California
11:40-12:15
Coffee Break & Demographics and Facts Discussion
Chair: James J. Heckman and Ronald Lee
12:15 – 13:00
Buffet Lunch
13:00-13:50
Economic Growth, Intergenerational Transfers, And Population Ageing
Ronald Lee, University of California, Berkeley
13:50-14:40
Replacement Fertility is Neither Natural, nor Optimal, nor Likely
David Weil, Brown University
14:40-15:10
Consequences Discussion
Chair: James J. Heckman and Ronald Lee
15:10-15:20
Coffee Break
15:20-16:00
Entertainment media and norms change
Eliana La Ferrara, Harvard Kennedy School
16:00-16:50
Wind of Change? Cultural Determinants of Maternal Labour Supply
Uta Schönberg, University of Hong Kong
16:50-18:00
Roundtable Close
Chair: James J. Heckman, Ronald Lee, Presenter Panel
Day 2: 20 December 2024
9:00-9:50
Educational expansion, economic cycles and low fertility
Karel Neels, University of Antwerp
9:50-10:40
Policy responses to low fertility: How effective are they?
Tomáš Sobotka, Vienna Institute of Demography
10:40-11:30
Cash benefit or tax incentives
Zsolt Spéder, Hungarian Demographic Research Institute
11:30-11:45
Coffee Break
11:45-12:35
Family ideals in an era of low fertility
Alícia Adserà, Princeton University
12:35-13:25
Quantitatively assessing norms (Virtual)
Cristina Bicchieri, University of Pennsylvania
13:25 – 14:10
Buffet Lunch
14:10-15:00
Policy & Norms Discussion
Chair: James J. Heckman and Ronald Lee
15:00 - 15:45
Desired Fertility, Actual Fertility and the Effects of China’s Universal Two-Child Policy
Hanming Fang, University of Pennsylvania
15:45 - 16:30
Why are Family Benefits Tools of Fair Distributions Rather than Fertility Incentives?
Róbert Gál, Corvinus University
Pieter Vanhuysse, University of Southern Denmark
16:30-17:30
Roundtable Discussion
Chair: James J. Heckman and Ronald Lee
17:30-18:00
Summary
James J. Heckman, The University of Chicago
Ronald Lee, University of California, Berkeley
Tomáš Sobotka, Vienna Institute of Demography
Matthias Doepke, London School of Economics
Zsolt Spéder, Hungarian Demographic Research Institute
Closing remarks
Zoltán, O. Szántó, Corvinus University Budapest
18:00
Reception at Corvinus Institute for Advanced Studies
Reading List
Adsera
- Adserà, Alícia. 2004. "Changing Fertility Rates in Developed Countries. The Impact of Labor Market Institutions." Journal of Population Economics, 17 (1): 17-43.
- Adserà, Alícia. 2005. "Vanishing Children: From High Unemployment to Low Fertility in Developed Countries." The American Economic Review, 95 (2): 189-193.
- Adserà, Alícia. 2011. "The interplay of employment uncertainty and education in explaining second births in Europe." Demographic Research, S12 (16): 513-544.
- Adserà, Alícia. 2011. "Where Are the Babies? Labor Market Conditions and Fertility in Europe / Où sont les bébés ? Conditions du marché du travail et fécondité en Europe." European Journal of Population / Revue Européenne de Démographie, 27 (1): 1-32.
- Adserà, Alícia. 2017. "Education and fertility in the context of rising inequality." Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 15: 63-92.
- Adserà, Alícia, and Ana Ferrer. 2018. "Fertility Issues in Developed Countries." In The Oxford Handbook of Women and the Economy, edited by Susan L. Averett, Laura M. Argys and Saul D. Hoffman, 149-172. Oxford University Press.
- Adserà, Alícia, and Alicia Menendez. 2011. "Fertility changes in Latin America in periods of economic uncertainty." Population Studies, 65 (1): 37-56.
- Adserà, Alícia, and Marcela Valdivia. 2023. "Migrant Family Building: Recent Evidence and Implications." In International Migration Outlook, edited by OECD, 111-144. Paris: OECD.
- Adserà, Alícia. 2005. "Differences in Desired and Actual Fertility: An Economic Analysis of the Spanish Case." IZA Discussion Paper No. 1584. (Bonn, Germany).
- Adserà, Alícia, and Mariana Lozano. 2021. "Why Don't Women Have All the Children They Say They Want?" la Caixa Foundation, The Social Observatory.
- Adserà, Alícia. 2006. "An Economic Analysis of the Gap Between Desired and Actual Fertility: The Case of Spain." Review of Economics of the Household, 4 (1): 75-95.
Bartus
- Spéder, Z. and T. Bartus (2017). "Educational Enrolment, Double-Status Positions and the Transition to Motherhood in Hungary." European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie, 33(1): 55-85.
- Tamás Bartus, Lívia Murinkó, Ivett Szalma, Bernadett Szél, "The effect of education on second births in Hungary: A test of the time-squeeze, self-selection, and partner-effect hypotheses", Demographic Research, Vol. 28 (JANUARY - JUNE 2013), pp. 1-32
- Spéder, Z., Bartus, T., "Educational Enrolment, Double-Status Positions and the Transition to Motherhood in Hungary", Eur J Population 33, 55–85 (2017).
- Medgyesi, M. and Orbán, A. (2021): Families and Family Values in Society and Culture: Country Report of Hungary, in: Isabelle Albert, Mirza Emirhafizovic, Carmit-Noa Shpigelman, Ursula Trummer (eds.): Families and Family Values in Society and Culture. A volume in the series: Perspectives on Human Development, Information Age Publishing, 2021.
Delventhal
- Matthew J. Delventhal, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Nezih Guner (2024). "Demographic Transitions Across Time and Space"
Doepke
- Doepke, Matthias, Anne Hannusch, Fabian Kindermann, and Michèle Tertilt. 2023. "The economics of fertility: a new era." In Handbook of the Economics of the Family, edited by Shelly Lundberg and Alessandra Voena, 151-254. North-Holland.
Fang
- Fang, Hanming, Chang Liu, and Shenghui Yang. (2024). "Desired Fertility, Actual Fertility and the Effects of China’s Universal Two-Child Policy," Unpublished manuscript, University of Pennsylvania.
Gál
- Gábos A, , Kézdi G. (2009): The effects of child-related benefits and pensions on fertility by birth order: A test on Hungarian data. Population Studies 63 (3), 215-231
- Lee RD, Mason A, Members of the NTA Network (2014): Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumption. Science 346/6206, 229-234.
- Mason A, Lee RD, Members of the NTA Network (2022): Six Ways Population Change Will Affect the Global Economy. Population and Development Review 48(1) 51-73.
- R.I.; Gergely V. and Medgyesi M. (2011): “National Transfer Accounts in Hungary: Contribution Asset and Returns in a Pay-as-you-go Pension Scheme” in. Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason (eds.) Population Aging and the Generational Economy. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK, 201
- Gál RI, Vanhuysse P, Vargha L (2018): Pro-elderly welfare states within child-oriented societies. Journal of European Public Policy 25(6), 944-958.
Greulich
- Luci-Greulich, Angela, and Olivier Thévenon. (2013). "The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries," European Journal of Population / Revue Européenne de Démographie, 29(4): 387-416.
La Ferrara
- La Ferrara, Eliana, Alberto Chong, and Suzanne Duryea. 2012. "Soap Operas and Fertility: Evidence from Brazil." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 4 (4): 1–31.
Lee
- Lee, Ronald. 2013. "Intergenerational Transfers, the Biological Life Cycle, and Human Society." Population and Development Review 38 (s1): 23-35.
- Lee, Ronald. 2023. "Economic Growth, Intergenerational Transfers, and Population Ageing." In The Routledge Handbook of the Economics of Ageing, edited by David E. Bloom, Alfonso Sousa-Poza and Uwe Sunde, 287-302. New York, NY: Routledge.
- Lee, Ron. (2024). " Note on perspectives on fertility." Unpublished manuscript, Center on the Economics of Demography and Aging, University of California at Berkeley.
Makay
- Makay, Zsuzsanna (2023): Paid Parental Leave Reforms and Mothers’ Employment in Austria, France and Hungary. Comparative Population Studies, 48.
- Gábos, András and Makay, Zsuzsanna (2020): "Hungary country note," in Koslowski, A., Blum, S., Dobrotić, I., Macht, A., and Moss, P. (eds.) International Review of Leave Policies and Research 2020.
Medgyesi
- Nagy, I. (2019): “Income Sharing and Spending Decisions of Young People Living with their Parents”. in: O’Reilly, Leschke, Ortlieb, Seeleib-Kaiser, Villa (eds): Youth Labor in Transition, Oxford University Press, 258-285. (ISBN: 9780190864798)
- Medgyesi M. and Kalavrezou, N (2014): Inequality in the use of childcare. European Commission, Social Situation Monitor Research Note 8/2014
Schonberg
- Boelmann, Barbara, Anna Raute, and Uta Schönberg. 2021. Wind of Change? Cultural Determinants of Maternal Labor Supply. University of Bonn and University of Cologne (Germany).
- Cornelissen, Thomas, Christian Dustmann, Anna Raute, and Uta Schönberg. (2018). "Who Benefits from Universal Child Care? Estimating Marginal Returns to Early Child Care Attendance," Journal of Political Economy, 126(6): 2356-2409.
Sobotka
- Maria Winkler-Dworak, Kryštof Zeman, Tomáš Sobotka (2024). Birth rate decline in the later phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: the role of policy interventions, vaccination programmes, and economic uncertainty, Human Reproduction Open, Volume 2024, Issue 3, 2024, hoae052.
- Sobotka, Tomáš and Éva Beaujouan. (2018). "Late Motherhood in Low-Fertility Countries: Reproductive Intentions, Trends and Consequences." In: Stoop, D. (ed) Preventing Age Related Fertility Loss. Cham: Springer Publishing Switzerland. Chapter 2, pp. 11-29.
- Sobotka, T., Skirbekk, V. and Philipov, D. (2011), "Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World." Population and Development Review, 37: 267-306.
- Frejka, Tomas, Jan M. Hoem, Tomáš Sobotka, and Laurent Toulemon, eds. (2008). "Childbearing Trends and Policies in Europe," (Rostock, Germany: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)
- Sobotka, T., Matysiak, A. and Brzozowska, Z. (2019). Policy responses to low fertility: How effective are they. UNFPA Technical Division, Working Papers series, No. 1. (available at https://www.unfpa.org/
publications/policy-responses- low-fertility-how-effective- are-they )
- Gietel-Basten S, Rotkirch A, Sobotka T. (2022). Changing the perspective on low birth rates: why simplistic solutions won’t work BMJ 2022; 379 :e072670 doi:10.1136/bmj-2022-072670 (available at https://www.bmj.com/content/
379/bmj-2022-072670) - Lutz, Wolfgang, Tomáš Sobotka, and Kryštof Zeman. (2024). "Evaluating pronatalist policies with TFR brings misleading conclusions: examples from Hungary," in Newspaper of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, (Firenze, Italy: Neodemos).
Spéder
- Fahey, T. and Z. Spéder (2004). "Fertility and family issues in an enlarged Europe (report)." Quality of life in central and eastern European candidate countries. Budapest, Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin, and Demographic Research Institute.
- Aassve, A., F.C. Billari, and Zs. (2006), “Societal transition, policy changes and family formation: Evidence from Hungary” European Journal of Population/Revue européenne de Démographie 22, 127-152 (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10680-005-7434-2)
- Spéder, Zs., L Murinkó, and L. Sz. Oláh (2020), "Cash support vs. tax incentives: The differential impact of policy interventions on third births in contemporary Hungary", Population studies 74 (1), 39-54 (https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00324728.2019.1694165)
- Philipov, D. Zs., F.C. Billari (2007) "Soon, later, or ever? The impact of anomie and social capital on fertility intentions in Bulgaria (2002) and Hungary (2001)", Population studies 60 (3), 289-308, (https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00324720600896080)
- Spéder, Zs. and B Kapitány (2009), "How are Time-Dependent Childbearing Intentions Realized? Realization, Postponement, Abandonment, Bringing Forward: Les intentions de fécondité sont-elles réalisées dans le …", European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie 25 (4), 503-523 (https://www.journal-population.com/post/?article=E_POPU_1204_0711)
- Spéder, Zs. and B Kapitány (2014) “Failure to realize fertility intentions: A key aspect of the post-communist fertility transition”, Population Research and Policy Review 33, 393-418 (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11113-013-9313-6)
- Spéder, Zs. and L. Bálint (2024), “Realization of Short-Term Fertility Intentions in a Comparative Perspective: Which Macro-Level Conditions Matter?”, Population Research and Policy Review 43 (5), 1-49 (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11113-024-09913-3)
Vanhuysse
- Medgyesi M, Gál RI (2023): Taxing reproduction: the full transfer cost of rearing children in Europe. Royal Society Open Science 10(10): 230759.
Weil
- Weil, David N. (2023). "Replacement Fertility is Neither Natural nor Optimal nor Likely," Unpublished manuscript, Brown University.