Overview of Demographic Trends & Causes

1. Nezih Guner

• Delventhal, Matthew J., Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, and Nezih Guner. (2021). "Demographic Transitions Across Time and Space," National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series, No. 29480.

2. Sobotka

• Frejka, Tomas, Jan M. Hoem, Tomáš Sobotka, and Laurent Toulemon, eds. (2008). "Childbearing Trends and Policies in Europe," (Rostock, Germany: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)
• Lutz, Wolfgang, Tomáš Sobotka, and Kryštof Zeman. (2024). "Evaluating pronatalist policies with TFR brings misleading conclusions: examples from Hungary," in Newspaper of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, (Firenze, Italy: Neodemos).

3. Doepke

• Doepke, Matthias, Anne Hannusch, Fabian Kindermann, and Michèle Tertilt. 2023. "The economics of fertility: a new era." In Handbook of the Economics of the Family, edited by Shelly Lundberg and Alessandra Voena, 151-254. North-Holland.

4. Adsera

• Adserà, Alícia. 2004. "Changing Fertility Rates in Developed Countries. The Impact of Labor Market Institutions." Journal of Population Economics, 17 (1): 17-43.
• Adserà, Alícia. 2005. "Vanishing Children: From High Unemployment to Low Fertility in Developed Countries." The American Economic Review, 95 (2): 189-193.
• Adserà, Alícia. 2011. "The interplay of employment uncertainty and education in explaining second births in Europe." Demographic Research, S12 (16): 513-544.
• Adserà, Alícia. 2011. "Where Are the Babies? Labor Market Conditions and Fertility in Europe / Où sont les bébés ? Conditions du marché du travail et fécondité en Europe." European Journal of Population / Revue Européenne de Démographie, 27 (1): 1-32.
• Adserà, Alícia. 2017. "Education and fertility in the context of rising inequality." Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 15: 63-92.
• Adserà, Alícia, and Ana Ferrer. 2018. "Fertility Issues in Developed Countries." In The Oxford Handbook of Women and the Economy, edited by Susan L. Averett, Laura M. Argys and Saul D. Hoffman, 149-172. Oxford University Press.
• Adserà, Alícia, and Alicia Menendez. 2011. "Fertility changes in Latin America in periods of economic uncertainty." Population Studies, 65 (1): 37-56.
• Adserà, Alícia, and Marcela Valdivia. 2023. "Migrant Family Building: Recent Evidence and Implications." In International Migration Outlook, edited by OECD, 111-144. Paris: OECD.

5. Spéder

• Fahey, T. Zs. (2004), Fertility and family issues in an enlarged Europe, European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions Office for Official Publications of the European Communities (https://policycommons.net/artifacts/1837271/fertility-and-family-issues-in-an-enlarged-europe-report/2580586/)

6. Gál

• Gábos A, , Kézdi G. (2009): The effects of child-related benefits and pensions on fertility by birth order: A test on Hungarian data. Population Studies 63 (3), 215-231
• Lee RD, Mason A, Members of the NTA Network (2014): Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumption. Science 346/6206, 229-234.
• Mason A, Lee RD, Members of the NTA Network (2022): Six Ways Population Change Will Affect the Global Economy. Population and Development Review 48(1) 51-73.

7. Bartus

• Spéder, Zs. and T. (2016) Educational enrolment, double-status positions and the transition to motherhood in Hungary, European Journal of Population 33 (1), 55-85 (https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6241082/)

Consequences of the Decline

1. Lee

• Lee, Ronald. 2013. "Intergenerational Transfers, the Biological Life Cycle, and Human Society." Population and Development Review 38 (s1): 23-35.
• Lee, Ronald. 2023. "Economic Growth, Intergenerational Transfers, and Population Ageing." In The Routledge Handbook of the Economics of Ageing, edited by David E. Bloom, Alfonso Sousa-Poza and Uwe Sunde, 287-302. New York, NY: Routledge.
• Lee, Ron. (2024). " Note on perspectives on fertility." Unpublished manuscript, Center on the Economics of Demography and Aging, University of California at Berkeley.

2. Weil

• Weil, David N. (2023). "Replacement Fertility is Neither Natural nor Optimal nor Likely," Unpublished manuscript, Brown University.

3. Gál

• R.I.; Gergely V. and Medgyesi M. (2011): “National Transfer Accounts in Hungary: Contribution Asset and Returns in a Pay-as-you-go Pension Scheme” in. Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason (eds.) Population Aging and the Generational Economy. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK, 201
• Gál RI, Vanhuysse P, Vargha L (2018): Pro-elderly welfare states within child-oriented societies. Journal of European Public Policy 25(6), 944-958.

4. Medgyesi

• Nagy, I. (2019): “Income Sharing and Spending Decisions of Young People Living with their Parents”. in: O’Reilly, Leschke, Ortlieb, Seeleib-Kaiser, Villa (eds): Youth Labor in Transition, Oxford University Press, 258-285. (ISBN: 9780190864798)
• Medgyesi M. and Kalavrezou, N (2014): Inequality in the use of childcare. European Commission, Social Situation Monitor Research Note 8/2014

5. Vanhuysse

• Medgyesi M, Gál RI (2023): Taxing reproduction: the full transfer cost of rearing children in Europe. Royal Society Open Science 10(10): 230759. 

Policy

1. Fang

• Fang, Hanming, Chang Liu, and Shenghui Yang. (2024). "Desired Fertility, Actual Fertility and the Effects of China’s Universal Two-Child Policy," Unpublished manuscript, University of Pennsylvania.

2. Schonberg

• Boelmann, Barbara, Anna Raute, and Uta Schönberg. 2021. Wind of Change? Cultural Determinants of Maternal Labor Supply. University of Bonn and University of Cologne (Germany).
• Cornelissen, Thomas, Christian Dustmann, Anna Raute, and Uta Schönberg. (2018). "Who Benefits from Universal Child Care? Estimating Marginal Returns to Early Child Care Attendance," Journal of Political Economy, 126(6): 2356-2409.

3. Guner

4. Gabos (TÁRKI Social Research Institute)

5. Zsuzsanna Makay

• Makay, Zsuzsanna (2023): Paid Parental Leave Reforms and Mothers’ Employment in Austria, France and Hungary. Comparative Population Studies, 48.
• Gábos, András and Makay, Zsuzsanna (2020): "Hungary country note," in Koslowski, A., Blum, S., Dobrotić, I., Macht, A., and Moss, P. (eds.) International Review of Leave Policies and Research 2020.

6. Angela GREULICH (Science Pro Paris)

• Luci-Greulich, Angela, and Olivier Thévenon. (2013). "The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries," European Journal of Population / Revue Européenne de Démographie, 29(4): 387-416.

7. Sobotka

8. Spéder

• Aassve, A., F.C. Billari, and Zs. (2006), “Societal transition, policy changes and family formation: Evidence from Hungary” European Journal of Population/Revue européenne de Démographie 22, 127-152 (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10680-005-7434-2)

• Spéder, Zs., L Murinkó, and L. Sz. Oláh (2020), "Cash support vs. tax incentives: The differential impact of policy interventions on third births in contemporary Hungary", Population studies 74 (1), 39-54 (https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00324728.2019.1694165)

Preferences and Norms

1. Bicchieri

2. Adsera

• Adserà, Alícia. 2005. "Differences in Desired and Actual Fertility: An Economic Analysis of the Spanish Case." IZA Discussion Paper No. 1584. (Bonn, Germany).
• Adserà, Alícia, and Mariana Lozano. 2021. "Why Don't Women Have All the Children They Say They Want?" la Caixa Foundation, The Social Observatory.
• Adserà, Alícia. 2006. "An Economic Analysis of the Gap Between Desired and Actual Fertility: The Case of Spain." Review of Economics of the Household, 4 (1): 75-95.

3. La Ferrara

• La Ferrara, Eliana, Alberto Chong, and Suzanne Duryea. 2012. "Soap Operas and Fertility: Evidence from Brazil." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 4 (4): 1–31.

4. Bartus

• Tamás Bartus, Lívia Murinkó, Ivett Szalma, Bernadett Szél, "The effect of education on second births in Hungary: A test of the time-squeeze, self-selection, and partner-effect hypotheses", Demographic Research, Vol. 28 (JANUARY - JUNE 2013), pp. 1-32
• Spéder, Z., Bartus, T., "Educational Enrolment, Double-Status Positions and the Transition to Motherhood in Hungary",  Eur J Population 33, 55–85 (2017).
• Medgyesi, M. and Orbán, A. (2021): Families and Family Values in Society and Culture: Country Report of Hungary, in: Isabelle Albert, Mirza Emirhafizovic, Carmit-Noa Shpigelman, Ursula Trummer (eds.): Families and Family Values in Society and Culture. A volume in the series: Perspectives on Human Development, Information Age Publishing, 2021.

5. Spéder

• Philipov, D. Zs., F.C. Billari (2007) "Soon, later, or ever? The impact of anomie and social capital on fertility intentions in Bulgaria (2002) and Hungary (2001)", Population studies 60 (3), 289-308, (https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00324720600896080)

• Spéder, Zs. and B Kapitány (2009), "How are Time-Dependent Childbearing Intentions Realized? Realization, Postponement, Abandonment, Bringing Forward: Les intentions de fécondité sont-elles réalisées dans le …", European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie 25 (4), 503-523 (https://www.journal-population.com/post/?article=E_POPU_1204_0711)

• Spéder, Zs. and B Kapitány (2014) “Failure to realize fertility intentions: A key aspect of the post-communist fertility transition”, Population Research and Policy Review 33, 393-418 (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11113-013-9313-6)

• Spéder, Zs. and L. Bálint (2024), “Realization of Short-Term Fertility Intentions in a Comparative Perspective: Which Macro-Level Conditions Matter?”, Population Research and Policy Review 43 (5), 1-49 (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11113-024-09913-3)

Demographic trends and causes #2

1. Karel Neels (University of Antwerp)

2. Márton Medgyesi (Corvinus)

3. Anna Matysiak (Warsaw)

Summary Discussion