Lifecycle Working Group
The Lifecycle Working Group, organized by James Heckman, Steven Durlauf, and Jin Zhou, invites faculty, researchers and graduate students to present work that applies the comprehensive lifecycle approach to the study of human flourishing. The workshop takes place on Wednesdays at 5:15PM and is located at 5750 S. Woodlawn Avenue, Conference Room 180. This interdisciplinary workshop is open to the campus research community.
This workshop is sponsored by the The Research Network On The Determinants Of Life Course Capabilities And Outcomes.
Working Group Schedule 2019-2020
January 14, 2019 at 5:15-6:30pm, Location: CEHD 180
Layered Policy Analysis using Marginal Treatment Effect
Ismael Mourifie, University of Toronto
November 20, 2019 at 5:15-6:30pm, Location: CEHD 180
Interpreting Signals in the Labor Market
Heather Sarsons, University of Chicago Booth
November 13, 2019 at 5:15-6:30, Location: CEHD 180
Democracy Without Redistribution: The Sense of Injustice, Perceived Inequality, and Preferences for Redistribution
Yeonju Lee, Harvard University
November 6, 2019 at 5:15-6:30, Location: CEHD 180
Fertility and Family Policies in Germany: Optimal Policy Design in a Dynamic Framework
Hanna Wang, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, MOVE and Barcelona GSE
October 30, 2019 5:15-6:30, Location: CEHD 180
Examining the Economic Content of Monotonicity Criteria in Multiple Choice Models
Rodrigo Pinto, UCLA
October 23, 2019 5:15-6:30pm, Location: CEHD 180
Mothers working during preschool years and child skills?
Kjell Salvanes, Norwegian School of Economics
October 9, 2019 at 5:15-6:30pm, Location: CEHD 180
General Equilibrium Theory and Empirical Analysis of Immigrants’ Neighborhood Sorting and Social Integration
Yujung Hwang, University of Geneva
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Working Group Schedule 2018-2019
June 7, 2019 (Friday) at 4:00pm, Location: Saieh Hall 112
Actors in the Child Development Process
Ewout Verriest, NYU
Abstract: We construct and estimate a model of child development in which both the parents and children make investments in the child’s skill development. In each period of the development process, partially altruistic parents act as the Stackelberg leader and the child the follower when setting her own study time. We then extend this non-cooperative form of interaction by allowing parents to offer incentives to the child to increase her study time, at some monitoring cost. We show that this incentive scheme, a kind of internal conditional cash transfer, produces efficient outcomes and, in general, increases the child’s cognitive ability. In addition to heterogeneity in resources (wage offers and non-labor income), the model allows for heterogeneity in preferences both for parents and children, and in monitoring costs. Like their parents, children are forward-looking, but we allow children and parents to have different preferences and for children to have age-varying discount rates, becoming more “patient” as they age. Using detailed time diary information on the allocation of parent and child time linked to measures of child cognitive ability, we estimate several versions of the model. Using model estimates, we explore the impact of various government income transfer policies on child development.
May 31, 2019 (Friday) at 5:30pm, Location: Saieh Hall 112
Environmental Neuroscience: Uncovering the extensive interactions between neurobiology, psychology, behavior and the environment
Marc Berman, The University of Chicago
May 24, 2019 (Friday) at 5:30pm, Location: Saieh Hall 112
(Not) Playing Favorites: An Experiment on Parental Preferences for Educational Investment
Rebecca Dizon-Ross, University of Chicago Booth
Abstract: How do parents choose to allocate investments across children? Do they maximize the returns to their investments (total household earnings), or equalize across their children because of an aversion to cross-sibling inequality? In this paper, we conduct the first experiment that identifies parents’ preferences for investing in their children’s education. The experiment exogenously varies the short-run returns to educational investments to identify the degree to which parents care about (a) maximizing total household earnings, (b) minimizing cross-sibling inequality in “outcomes” (i.e., child- level earnings), and (c) minimizing cross-sibling inequality in “inputs” (i.e., the inves- tments each child receives). We find that while parents care about both maximizing total household earnings and minimizing inequality in inputs, they place a high value on equality of inputs. Parents choose exactly equal inputs 35% of the time and forego 40-50% of their potential experimental earnings due to inequality aversion in inputs. In contrast, we find no evidence that parents are averse to inequality in outcomes.
May 17, 2019 (Friday) at 5:30pm, Location: Saieh Hall 112
The Marginal Labor Supply Disincentives of Welfare Reforms
Robert Moffitt, Johns Hopkins University
Abstract: Existing research on the static effects of the manipulation of welfare program benefit parameters on supply has allowed only restrictive forms of heterogeneity in preferences. Yet preference heterogeneity implies that the marginal effects of welfare reforms on labor supply may differ in different time periods with different populations and which sweep out different portions of the marginal distributions of preferences. A new examination of the heavily studied AFDC program shows that changes in its tax rates and guarantees in 1967, the 1970s, 1981, 1996, and 2010 had different marginal effects on labor supply because of differing heterogeneity of marginal participants in each case. The models used to estimate these effects allow for a nonparametric specification of how changes in welfare program participation affect labor supply on the margin. Estimates of the model using a form of local instrumental variables show that the effects of each of the historical reforms on labor supply differed because of differences in the composition of who was on the program and who was not, and who the marginal person was, in each period.
May 10, 2019 (Friday) at 5:30pm, Location: Saieh Hall 112
A Dynamic Model of Personality, Schooling and Occupational Choice
Petra Todd, University of Pennsylvania
April 26, 2019
Econographics: Clustering of Preferences from a Representative US Sample
Colin Camerer, Caltech
Professor Colin Camerer will visit the University of Chicago to participate in the Policy Forum: Assessing the Contributions of Behavioral Economics to Economic Science, hosted by the Center for the Economics of Human Development and the Macro Finance Research Program. He will give a special lecture on Econographics: Clustering of Preferences from a Representative US Sample at the Lifecycle Working Group.
April 12, 2019 (Friday), Location: Saieh Hall 112
Marriage market dynamics, gender, and the age gap
Andrew J. Shephard, University of Pennsylvania
Abstract: We present a general discrete choice framework for analysing household formation and dissolution decisions in an equilibrium limited-commitment collective framework that allows for marriage both within and across birth cohorts. Using Panel Study of Income Dynamics and American Community Survey data, we apply our framework to empirically implement a time allocation model with labour market earnings risk, human capital accumulation, home production activities, fertility, and both within- and across-cohort marital matching. Our model replicates the bivariate marriage distribution by age, and explains some of the most salient life-cycle patterns of marriage, divorce, remarriage, and time allocation behaviour. We use our estimated model to quantify the impact of the significant reduction in the gender wage gap since the 1980s on marriage outcomes.
March 26, 2019
The New Findings of Preparing for Life Program
Orla Doyle, University College Dublin
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March 19, 2019
Separating Skills from Effort in the Identification of Factor Models and Implications for the Gender Gap
Jake Torcasso, The University of Chicago
Abstract: We apply new results in the identification of factor models to separate the effects of effort and skills in measures of task performance. We provide two empirical applications. First, we utilize detailed data on test scores, grades and self-reports of personality from Project Talent, a national longitudinal survey representative of the U.S. high school population in 1960. For our second example, we use the computer-based test of the 2015 PISA study. In both cases, we compare estimates of skill gaps among demographic groups before and after adjusting for effort.
March 12, 2019
Grandparents, Moms, or Dads? Why Children of Teen Mothers Do Worse in Life
Kjell Salvanes, NHH Norwegian School of Economics
Abstract: Women who give birth as teens have worse subsequent educational and labor market outcomes than women who have first births at older ages. However, previous research has attributed much of these effects to selection rather than a causal effect of teen childbearing. Despite this, there are still reasons to believe that children of teen mothers may do worse as their mothers may be less mature, have fewer financial resources when the child is young, and may partner with fathers of lower quality. Using Norwegian register data, we compare outcomes of children of sisters who have first births at different ages. Our evidence suggests that the causal effect of being a child of a teen mother is much smaller than that implied by the cross-sectional differences but that there are still significant long-term, adverse consequences, especially for children born to the youngest teen mothers. Unlike previous research, we have information on fathers and find that negative selection of fathers of children born to teen mothers plays an important role in producing inferior child outcomes. These effects are particularly large for mothers from higher socio-economic groups.
March 5, 2019
Human Capital, Child Well-being, and Child Protection
Fred Wulczyn, Chapin Hall
Abstract:In this paper, we propose a framework that adds human capital and human capital formation to the list of outcomes child welfare agencies think about when their attention turns to child well-being. Human capital and human capital formation, we argue, offer a conceptual language for bringing greater focus to well-being as an inherently developmental construct. The framework also provides a useful guide to research.
Feburary 26, 2019
Childhood Investments, Ability, and Endogenous Maternal Age
Sadegh Eshaghnia, Arizona State University
Abstract: The maternal age has been increasing in the US over the past few decades, which has raised concerns about the health impacts on children. To assess the effect of a mother’s age at childbirth on the child’s skill level, I develop and estimate a life-cycle model of child development that endogenizes the timing of childbearing. When choosing the timing of childbearing, women balance the impacts of fertility decisions on their labor market outcomes with the potential negative effects of bearing children at a later age on the child’s ability. Mothers also make labor supply decisions and provide time and money as inputs into the child’s skill formation process. Although delayed childbearing negatively affects a child’s ability to acquire skills, postponing parenthood benefits children by providing them with more resources during childhood. This trade-off determines both childbearing age and the amount of investments in the child. Using the estimated model, I decompose the impacts of postponement on the child into the negative effect of reproductive aging and the positive effect of higher investments. The results indicate that a five-year (1 std) decrease in the maternal age of educated women, ceteris paribus, results in over 11% (0.5 std) increase in the child's skill level, and 15% increase in the child's future earnings, which is due to a higher ability to acquire skills. However, if one adjusts child investments according to individuals' wage profile conditional on the reduced maternal age, then the average child's skill level decreases by 1.6%. This reduction in children's skill highlights the impact of lower inputs that children of younger mothers receive from their parents. The negative effect of foregone wages may be reduced through policy approaches. My policy analysis indicates that implementing a maternity leave policy that freezes mothers' wages at the level before childbirth can reduce average maternal age at the first birth by about two years, while also increasing the average child's skill level by about 5% and future earnings by over 6%. This increase in skill stems from both the lower maternal age and the higher child investments.
Feburary 19, 2019
Prosociality: Hard to Build but Easy to Destroy
Fabian Kosse, LMU Munich & briq
Abstract: A large literature indicates the importance of prosocial behavior and beliefs for the success of groups or countries, e.g., regarding growth and tax compliance, but also for the well-being of individuals, e.g., regarding health, happiness and even income. While recent studies indicate that intensive interaction with positive role models is able to foster prosociality, little is known about aspects of the social environment which potentially diminish prosocial behavior and beliefs. Psychological and economic theories suggest that competitive environments could potentially lower prosociality. To test this hypothesis, we analyze the effects of a large scale RCT in the education context in Chile which increased the level of competition as part of an affirmative action program. We show that students in treated school are less prosocial at the end of high school. Our results show that even policies which were designed in order to support the development of children can negatively affect prosocial behavior and beliefs.Please register for this lecture here.
Feburary 12, 2019
Relative Age and Investment in Human Capital
Pablo Pena, World Bank
February 5, 2019
Lowering Welfare Benefits: Intended and Unintended Consequences for Migrants and their Families
Rasmus Landersø, Rockwool Foundation Research Unit
Abstract: We study the effects of Denmark's Start Aid welfare reform for refugee immigrants, which reduced benefits by 50 percent for those granted residency after the reform. While leading to a sharp increase in labor earnings and employment, the reform also caused a persistent withdrawal of women from the labor force, and a large drop in average disposable income for the majority of households. A particular feature of the reform is randomization of couples into two treatments where the same overall transfer reduction on the household level is differently distributed across partners, which leads to large differences in responses. Studying the reform's unintended consequences, we show that it increases property crime among females and property and violent crime among males. Children's likelihood of being enrolled in childcare or preschool, their performance in Danish language tests, and the number of years of education obtained decrease, while teenagers' likelihood of claiming welfare and the likelihood that youths commit crime increase.
January 24, 2019
Are Economists' Preferences Psychologists' Personality Traits
Tomas Jagelka, École Polytechnique - CREST
Abstract: This paper establishes an empirical mapping between economic preferences and psychological personality traits. I use the Random Preference Model to estimate distributions of risk and time preferences complete with their individual-level stability and people’s propensity to make mistakes from unique experimental data. Using factor analysis to extract information on individuals’ ability and personality, I show that their link with preferences is much stronger than previously documented. I explain up to 50% of the variation in both average preferences and in individuals’ capacity to make consistent rational choices using four factors related to cognitive ability and three of the Big Five personality traits.
January 8, 2019
The Socio-Economic Consequences of Housing Assistance
Winnie Van Dijk, The University of Chicago
Abstract: This paper analyzes the effect of Europe’s largest public housing program on socio-economic outcomes for low-income households. Using lotteries for housing units in the Netherlands and data linking national registers to application choices, I show that the average move into public housing negatively affects labor market outcomes and proxies for neighborhood quality, and increases public assistance receipt. However, consistent with a model of labor supply responses to conditional in-kind transfers, average impacts miss substantial heterogeneity both across neighborhoods and, within neighborhood, across recipients. Moves into high-income neighborhoods generate positive effects, which are driven by ‘upward’ moves made by individuals previously living in low- or middle-income neighborhoods. Lateral and ‘downward’ moves have the opposite effect. To evaluate whether these results generalize to non-recipients, I develop a model of application behavior that utilizes panel data on application choices and exploits variation induced by the housing allocation mechanism. Using the model, I recover the distribution of heterogeneity that drives selection into and returns from lotteries, and estimate that selection on gains is limited. This suggests that targeting public housing in high-income neighborhoods based on observable characteristics can increase economic self-sufficiency.
December 11, 2018
Complementarities in High School and College Investments
Gregory F. Veramendi, Arizona State University
Abstract: The process of skill specialization starts before college, with different skills affecting students’ choice of major and later labor market returns. This paper studies the role of multi-dimensional ability and high school track choices in college preparedness and labor market outcomes. We do so by estimating a sequential choice model of education using Swedish administrative data. Individuals sort at each stage based on prior choices and three dimensions of ability: cognitive, interpersonal, and grit. We find strong absolute and differential sorting on abilities in both high school and college choices. Both abilities and high school track choices are important determinants of college enrollment, college major choice, college graduation, and labor market outcomes. The labor market returns to abilities and high school track choices vary considerably by degree and major. Not accounting for multidimensional abilities and high school choices can overstate the role of preferences and understate selection on gains and the heterogeneous returns to different abilities across different college majors. While high school track choices tend to exacerbate inequality, we show that policies encouraging students to take more challenging high school tracks can help ameliorate it.
November 27, 2018
Causality in the Time of Cholera: John Snow as a Prototype for Identification and Causal Inference
Thomas Coleman, Harris School of Public Policy
Abstract: Snow's 1855 treatise "On the mode of communication of cholera" can be viewed as a sustained effort to convince skeptics, through argument and a wide variety of evidence, of the waterborne theory of cholera that he articulated in his 1849 essay of the same name. Snow's data and analysis provide a prototype for how to convincingly demonstrate causal effects, as applicable today as in 1855. I consider two of strands of Snow's evidence - the Broad Street outbreak and the south London "Grand Experiment" - as pedagogical examples for using non-experimental data as evidence in support of a causal effect. In doing so I discuss extensions to Snow's south London analysis using modern techniques and tools: difference-in-differences regression and quasi-randomized treatment designs. These provide clear and compelling examples of the modern techniques and tools, while confirming and strengthening Snow's original conclusion on the causal effect of water supply on cholera mortality.
November 20, 2018
Breaking the Links: Natural Resource Booms and Intergenerational Mobility
Kjell Salvanes, Norwegian School of Economics
Abstract: Do large economic shocks increase intergenerational earnings mobility through creating new economic opportunities? Alternatively, do they reduce mobility by reinforcing the links between generations? In this paper, we estimate how the Norwegian oil boom starting in the 1970s affected intergenerational mobility. We find that this resource shock increased intergenerational mobility for cohorts entering the labor market at the beginning of the oil boom in those labor markets most affected by the growing oil industry. In particular, we show that individuals born to poor families in oil-affected regions were more likely to move to the top of their cohort's earnings distribution. Importantly, we reveal that preexisting local differences in intergenerational mobility did not drive these findings. Instead, we show that changes in the returns to education offer the best explanation for geographic differences in intergenerational mobility following the oil boom. In addition, we find that intergenerational mobility was significantly higher in oil-affected labor markets across three generations and that the oil boom broke the earnings link between grandfathers and their grandsons.
November 6, 2018
Social Capital and the Local Structure of Human Mobility in Chicago
James Saxon, Harris School of Public Policy
Abstract: A vast literature establishes the importance of social capital to neighborhoods. Jane Jacobs famously argued that this capital is maintained through “cross-use of space,” and James Coleman formalized it as the “closure” of human interactions. Many of these interactions require human mobility, so neighborhoods with higher social capital should be distinguishable by more cohesive mobility networks. To test this hypothesis, I observe the mobility of Chicago residents through a large dataset of smartphone users. I construct a neighborhood-level mobility network for the city and characterize neighborhoods according to their local graph structure. Neighborhoods that are well integrated with their surroundings have higher income and educational attainment. Consistent with social capital theory and routine activity theory in criminology, higher local network integration independently predicts lower rates of violent and property crime. Outliers with higher integration than their neighbors are comprehensible through their social, economic, institutional, and historical context. The methodologies presented provide a new, meaningful, replicable, and inexpensive approach to the structural measurement of neighborhood social capital.
October 30, 2018
Parental Rearing Practices, Cultural Transmission, and Cognitive Development
Avner Seror, Chapman University
Abstract: This paper presents a theory of child development and parental rearing practices. In the model, a benevolent parent seeks to transmit cultural norms to her child, who acquires cognitive skills and develops a capital of appreciation for adopting behaviors that accord with these norms. Our cultural perspective on the issue of cognitive development provides an interpretation grid for various results established in the empirical literature. It also permits to identify the parental characteristics that are conducive to various parenting styles, to child neglect and to child maltreatment.
October 23, 2018
Gender Development and the Brain
Lise Eliot, The Chicago Medical School of Rosalind Franklin University of Medicine & Science
Abstract: Dr. Eliot’s research is centered on brain and gender development, especially the role of neuroplasticity in shaping neural circuitry and behavior. She received an A.B. degree in History & Science from Harvard University, a Ph.D. in Cellular Physiology & Biophysics from Columbia University, and completed a post-doctoral fellowship in the Division of Neuroscience at Baylor College of Medicine. Her studies range from cellular neurophysiology to meta-analyses of brain sex difference and include two highly-praised trade books, What's Going On in There? How the Brain and Mind Develop in the First Five Years of Life, and Pink Brain, Blue Brain: How Small Differences Grow Into Troublesome Gaps. Through both empirical and scholarly research, Dr. Eliot analyzes the interplay between innate biology, sociocultural factors, and individual experience in molding our brains and behavior across the lifespan.
October 16, 2018
Understanding Peer Effects in Educational Decisions: Evidence from Theory and a Field Experience
Karen Ye, The University of Chicago
Abstract:While a large literature documents the presence of peer effects in teenage decision-making, researchers know very little about the underlying mechanisms. In this paper, I focus on the decision to participate in an educational program for high school students. I use a field experiment conducted in three Chicago high schools to disentangle two peer effect channels: social learning (where a peer’s decision is informative about the value of a program) and social utility (where a peer’s participation directly affects the value of a program). I measure students’ sign-up rates for an educational program when I randomize (a) whether a student sees a peer’s decision, and (b) which type of peer’s decision they see. I find large peer effects in the participation decision that are entirely driven by seeing a peer choose not to participate – seeing a peer choose “No” decreases the sign-up rate by 26.9 percentage points. The peer effects are driven by social utility, and seeing a peer choose “No” informs students about the social norms of participation. In this context, smart students’ decisions are especially influential. Finally, while students want to conform to the social norm, I find that they have very biased beliefs about (they drastically underestimate) their peers’ participation.
October 12, 2018
Early Childhood Development in Low Income Settings
Alexandra Brentani, University of Sao Paulo
Abstract: The present study aims to analyze the psychometric properties and general validity of the Caregiver Reported Early Development Instruments (CREDI) short form for the population-level assessment of early childhood development for Brazilian children under age 3. The study analyzed the acceptability, test-retest reliability, internal consistency and discriminant validity of the CREDI short-form tool. The study also analyzed the concurrent validity of the CREDI with a direct observational measure (Inter-American Development Bank's Regional Project on Child Development Indicators; PRIDI). The full sample includes 1,265 Brazilian caregivers of children from 0 to 35 months (678 of which comprising an in-person sample and 587 an online sample). Results from qualitative interviews suggest overall high rates of acceptability. Most of the items showed adequate test-retest reliability, with an average agreement of 84%. Cronbach's alpha suggested adequate internal consistency/inter-item reliability (α > 0.80) for the CREDI within each of the six age groups (0–5, 6–11, 12–17, 18–23, 24–29 and 30–35 months of age). Multivariate analyses of construct validity showed that a significant proportion of the variance in CREDI scores could be explained by child gender and family characteristics, most importantly caregiver-reported cognitive stimulation in the home (p < 0.0001). Regarding concurrent validity, scores on the CREDI were significantly correlated with overall PRIDI scores within the in-person sample at r = 0.46 (p < 0.001). The results suggested that the CREDI short form is a valid, reliable, and acceptable measure of early childhood development for children under the age of 3 years in Brazil.
October 9, 2018
Multi-Generational Approaches to the Study of Social Mobility
Xi Song, The University of Chicago
October 2, 2018
Economics of Parent-Child Interactions and Child Development
Jun Hyung Kim, The University of Chicago
Abstract: Parent-child interactions are determined endogenously by child behavior, making identification of causal effects challenging. We overcome this endogeneity by analyzing a randomized, universal parent-training intervention on parents of preschool children. Evaluation of adolescent outcomes 10 years after the program suggests improvements to externalizing behaviors and wellbeing of children in the intervention group, mediated by changes to parenting during early childhood. These outcomes are not explained adequately by extant models of parent-child interactions, and so we explore alternative explanations. We show that benefits of early childhood interventions extend beyond low-socioeconomic households.
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