Department of Economics

University of Chicago Department of Economics

Economics 312, Spring 2022, Part B: COMBINED PRIVATE KEY


Link to Part A Syllabus


Instructor: James J. Heckman

  • Lecture times: Tuesday and Thursday, 5:00pm – 6:20 pm
  • Lecture classroom: Saieh 146
  • Teaching Assistants:
    • Filippo Cavaleri (fcavaler@uchicago.edu)
    • Conroy Lau (ccplau@uchicago.edu)
    • TA Sessions: Fridays, 3:30pm-4:20pm, Saieh 146
    • NOTE: Please email the TAs if you plan to attend their Office Hours so that they do not wait unnecessarily. Please email them before office hours with any specific questions so that they can prepare.

If you experience problems with this website, please contact Jennifer Pachon.


Course Description

This course examines alternative ways to describe and learn from economic data using economic analysis. We consider:

  1. Counterfactuals and economic policy evaluation in three current “causal” frameworks
  2. Alternative modes of inference, including different approaches to testing theories synthesizing evidence from multiple sources using economic models (abduction, exploration and discovery)
  3. Using economics to analyze economic data with a focus on discrete choice and the Generalized Roy model and its extensions and applications
  4. The fundamental role of economics and information asymmetries in choosing estimators.

Goals of the Course

  1. Understand that econometrics is a field rooted in economics. Econometrics is much more than statistics:
    1. Using economics to interpret data and to motivate choices of estimators and test statistics
    2. Using economics and data to address policy problems
      1. Different classes of policy problems pose different challenges
      2. “Causal parameters” vs. “structural parameters”: is there any useful distinction?
  2. Develop a critical understanding of evidence using economics
    1. Understand the consequences of how data are generated (sampling plans) and how to account for them
    2. Replicability and consilience as essential activities of scientific economics
    3. Alternative modes of inference
      1. Classical statistics and its limitations
      2. Bayesian and likelihood alternatives
      3. Testing hypotheses
      4. How to learn from data: Abduction.
  3. Tools
    1. Basic economic choice models that help to organize and interpret evidence in a variety of fields
    2.  Comparison of estimation methods in the context of Generalized Roy Models and extensions:
      1. Structural methods
      2. IV
      3. Matching
      4. Control functions
      5. Longitudinal data and difference-in-differences
      6. Duration models
    3. Fundamental role of information and information asymmetrics in choosing estimators and devising test statistics

Class Requirements

There will be a written exam during finals week. Problem sets are due each week. They will be graded and count toward the final grade. The assignments will include analytical, free-response, and empirical questions. These questions will require the use of programming languages like Python, R, or MATLAB. Any programming language is accepted for the simulation exercises. If students have any questions on Problem Sets they should first ask the TA and only ask the professor if the TA is unable to help.

For the problem sets in Part B of the course, you may form groups of up to 3 people, maximum, with no exceptions. These study groups will be permanent for the rest of the course. Please send the list of people with your names as seen on Canvas to the TAs by Friday, April 30.  The TAs will set up groups on Canvas so that a group can submit its answers. Please upload an electronic version to Canvas (no late submissions are accepted) before the deadline, with one submission per group. Note that groups consisting of more than 3 members earn a mark of 0.

Rules for submission:
  • Include everyone’s names in the submitted document
  • The deadline for each assignment is the start of the lecture on the day that the problem set is due (5 PM on Tuesdays and Thursdays unless otherwise stated)
  • The documents containing the write-up (including but not limited to paragraph answers, equations, graphs, plots, diagrams, tables) must be in PDF format and you are strongly encouraged to use LaTeX to typeset your solutions. A collaborative platform like Overleaf would be useful
  • Please submit your code along with the write-up: both the source file(s) and the PDF version of the code if possible. Platforms like RMarkdown (for R), Jupyter (for Python and R) and MATLAB live scripts can be especially useful to include equations and text in Markdown cells alongside code blocks. The code should be well-formatted, with comments and well-labeled variable names as appropriate

Plan for this segment

  • April 28, 2022
  • May 3, 2022
  • May 5, 2022
  • May 10, 2022
  • May 12, 2022
  • May 17, 2022
  • May 19, 2022
  • May 24, 2022
  • May 26, 2022

Lecture Notes

Lecture notes for each week will be posted on the Canvas site in advance of each lecture on the website. The handouts distill and complement the readings.


2022 Syllabus

Recommended readings are indicated by (*). All other readings on this list and the supplement are background.

Is Feyman Right about Economics?

Topic 1. Causality

Topic 2. Learning from Data

A. Replicability in Economics

B. Abduction

C. Guest Lecture – Thomas Coleman

REQUIRED READING

BACKGROUND READING

Topic 3: Discrete Choice, Self-Selection and the Generalized Roy Model

Topic 4. Randomization

Topic 5. Instrumental Variables

  1. Interpreting IV, Part 1
  2. Interpreting IV, More on Roy Model
  3. Interpreting IV, LATE
  4. RDD
  5. Interpreting IV: What Economic Questions Can LATE Answer?
  6. MTE as Generator of All Treatment Effects: IV and Policy Weights
  7. IV Weights and Yitzhaki’s Theorem
  8. Yitzhaki Derived the Weights Used by the Proponents of LATE but Without Citation: The Weights Have a Lot of Intuition
  9. Derivation of Other Weights
  10. Carneiro, Pedro, James J. Heckman, and Edward J. Vytlacil. (2011). “Estimating Marginal Returns to Education.” American Economic Review, 101(6):2754-81.
  11. Comparing IV with Structural Models: What Simple IV Can and Cannot Identify

Topic 6. General Principles Underlying All Econometric Estimators

Topic 7. Matching

Topic 8: Simultaneous Equations and Social Interactions

Topic 9: Longitudinal and Panel Data

Slides:

Supplemental Reading


Topic 1. Causality

Topic 2. Learning from Data

Topic 3: Discrete Choice and Self-Selection

Topic 4. Randomization

Topic 5. Instrumental Variables

Topic 6. Matching

Topic 7. General Principles Underlying All Econometric Estimators

Topic 8: Simultaneous Equations and Social Interactions

 

Topic 9: Longitudinal and Panel Data

Social Experiments

Causal Analysis and Structural Analysis

Discrete Choice

Supplemental Slides